Stock market volatility comes with Trumpworld

In chemistry, ‘volatility’ refers to the ability of a substance to evaporate quickly—or, under the right conditions, to explode. In investments, it means much the same thing. Still, we don’t think you should avoid stock market volatility altogether.

Stock_Market_VolatilityStock markets worldwide have shown exceptionally high volatility since US President Donald Trump took office. Stocks climbed quickly, particularly when corporate tax rates were cut. Now Mr. Trump’s threats of launching trade wars have knocked down stock prices. We also expect Canada’s stock market to remain volatile.

Volatile investments appeal to some investors, because they see volatility as their source of profit—what can go down far and fast can also rise that way. You might say these investors confuse volatility with risk. But the two differ.

Risk and volatility differ

Risk has to do with the strengths and weaknesses of a company you own—whether it will prosper or go broke. Volatility has more to do with the way share prices behave. For instance, a promotional stock with few assets and no profits may display low volatility for long periods when the promoter is in control of the market. But it still exposes you to great risk.

Then again, high-quality stocks can be volatile—due to fast-changing regulatory or business developments, say. Consider BCE. The company’s stock has become more volatile with deregulation, rapid technological change and new competitors such as Netflix Inc. But because of its high investment quality—its large assets, solid business base, dividends and so on—it still exposes you to relatively less risk of a big long-term loss.

It’s also easy but mistaken to see volatility as the key difference between aggressive and defensive investments. Aggressive investments do tend to be more volatile, of course. But these two kinds of investments lie at either end of a continuum, and volatility is just one of many factors that vary between the two ends of that continuum. Other factors that can change from one end of the continuum to the other are the degree of stability in the business, length of the dividend history, hidden assets on the balance sheet and so on.

Volatility is a relative term—it always involves comparison. Over the years, analysts have tried to quantify volatility. The best-known measure of volatility is the ‘beta co-efficient’. If a stock moves in line with the market (or some part of it), it has a beta of 1.0. A beta above 1.0 means greater volatility, and a beta below 1.0 means less volatility.

Lots of factors may raise or lower a stock’s volatility. Few would surprise you. Volatility depends partly on the type of business a company is in. Companies in the manufacturing and resource sectors generally show above-average volatility. Companies in the utility and financial sectors have historically shown greater price stability. Consumer stocks are generally about average.

Volatile stocks often attract traders

Regardless of sector, the shares of a company that is undergoing a restructuring are almost certain to be more volatile than those of a business in a settled phase of operation. High overhead, heavy capital spending, large debt and changes in the market can also expand a stock’s volatility.

Thin trading shares are generally more volatile than liquid, active stocks, because it takes a smaller buy or sell order to move prices. For the same reason, low-priced stocks are often more volatile too. They also attract traders.

If you invest in volatile stocks, you should monitor your selections more carefully than you would with ones that are more stable. With a volatile stock, matters can deteriorate quickly.

Some investors buy a portfolio of stable stocks or a comparable ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund), then pay sporadic attention to their investment performance. But it’s by no means unknown for a respectable, placid stock to suffer an upset.

Keep in mind that a volatile stock is usually volatile for one key reason: nobody knows what it really is or should be worth. To put it another way, nobody knows how things will turn out for it. But they do think the outcome could differ drastically from the status quo.

This is an edited version of an article that was originally published for subscribers in the July 6, 2018, issue of The Investment Reporter. You can profit from the award-winning advice subscribers receive regularly in The Investment Reporter.

The Investment Reporter, MPL Communications Inc.
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